BIM情境下综合设施管理服务供应商激励契约

为有效激励综合设施管理（Integrated Facility Management，IFM）服务供应商应用BIM进行IFM外包服务，实现BIM在IFM过程中的应用价值与IFM项目绩效，基于委托代理理论，针对IFM外包BIM应用过程中IFM服务供应商需要执行的BIM系统运营服务和IFM业务咨询服务两项任务，构建多任务委托代理模型；依托模型，分析在两项服务任务成本相互独立、相互依存及相互替代等三种激励模式下的激励契约；结合模型计算与MATLAB仿真结果，辨识最优的激励模式及激励契约。研究表明：3种模式下的激励契约将对IFM服务供应商产生不同的激励效果，并对业主方IFM项目造成差异性绩效；3种激励模式下的最优激励契约由高到低排序为：成本相互依存模式下的最优激励契约>成本相互独立模式下的最优激励契约>成本相互替代模式下的最优激励契约；业主方应选取合适的激励模式与契约对IFM服务供应商进行激励，且其服务能力与IFM项目绩效越高，业主方对其激励将越大。     

I ain’t afraid of no ghost

This paper criticizes the traditional philosophical account of the quantization of gauge theories and offers an alternative. On the received view, gauge theories resist quantization because they feature distinct mathematical representatives of the same physical state of affairs. This resistance is overcome by a sequence of ad hoc modifications, justified in part by reference to semiclassical electrodynamics. Among other things, these modifications introduce ”ghosts”: particles with unphysical properties which do not appear in asymptotic states and which are said to be purely a notational convenience. I argue that this sequence of modifications is unjustified and inadequate, making it a poor basis for the interpretation of ghosts. I then argue that gauge theories can be quantized by the same method as any other theory. On this account, ghosts are not purely notation: they are coordinates on the classical configuration space of the theory—specifically, on its gauge structure. This interpretation does not fall prey to the standard philosophical arguments against the significance of ghosts, due to Weingard. Weingard’s argumentative strategy, properly applied, in fact tells in favor of ghosts’ physical significance.     

毛乌素沙地上空沙尘暴的前向轨迹及其影响范围

基于气象数据、MODIS遥感影像数据和NCEP再分析资料, 利用HYSPLIT模型模拟2000—2019年毛乌素沙地上空不同海拔高度(500, 1000和1500 m)各季节沙尘暴的前向轨迹, 并与遥感影像识别出的沙尘信息进行比较, 识别毛乌素沙地沙尘暴的影响范围。结果显示: 1) 在过去的20年中, 共有143个沙尘暴月和387个沙尘暴日, 并且 2004 年以来, 毛乌素沙地发生沙尘暴的频率逐渐降低; 2) 季节性气候条件对毛乌素沙地沙尘暴的移动路径有很大的影响, 春季沙尘暴发生频率较高, 秋季发生频率最低; 3) 受毛乌素沙地沙尘暴影响的国内地区主要包括陕西省北部、山西省北部、河北省北部和中部、山东省北部和中部、北京市、天津市、内蒙古自治区东部以及东北三省, 国外受影响的地区有朝鲜、日本北部以及俄罗斯与我国交界处, 受影响的海域有渤海、黄海北部和日本海西北部。遥感影像与HYSPLIT模型的比较提供了一种对沙尘运输、扩散和沉积过程进行验证和加深了解的有效工具, 研究结果可以为防灾减灾决策及沙源地治理提供科学的参考依据。     

资源衰退型城市产业结构调整与环境污染的联动效应

基于 2003年—2016年我国资源衰退型城市产业结构调整与环境相关数据，测度了资源衰退型城市产业结构调整与工业三废减排的耦合协调度，并进一步应用面板VAR 模型对产业结构调整与环境污染排放的动态互动关系进行定量分析.研究结果表明，目前我国资源衰退型城市产业结构调整与污染减排的耦合协调度仍处于濒临失调状态.脉冲响应图显示，产业结构高级化促进工业废水、工业二氧化硫的减排具有长期效应，工业废水减排有助于倒逼产业结构高级化.我国资源衰退型城市转型发展，应进一步推动产业结构的调整，大力发展第三产业与高新技术产业，加快经济结构优化升级，以产业结构的高级化推动城市的绿色高质量发展.     

Neural network structure identification in inflation forecasting

Neural networks (NNs) are appropriate to use in time series analysis under conditions of unfulfilled assumptions, i.e., non‐normality and nonlinearity. The aim of this paper is to propose means of addressing identified shortcomings with the objective of identifying the NN structure for inflation forecasting. The research is based on a theoretical model that includes the characteristics of demand‐pull and cost‐push inflation; i.e., it uses the labor market, financial and external factors, and lagged inflation variables. It is conducted at the aggregate level of euro area countries from January 1999 to January 2017. Based on the estimated 90 feedforward NNs (FNNs) and 450 Jordan NNs (JNNs), which differ in variable parameters (number of iterations, learning rate, initial weight value intervals, number of hidden neurons, and weight value of the context unit), the mean square error (MSE), and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) are calculated for two periods: in‐the‐sample and out‐of‐sample. Ranking NNs simultaneously on both periods according to either MSE or AIC does not lead to the selection of the ‘best’ NN because the optimal NN in‐the‐sample, based on MSE and/or AIC criteria, often has high out‐of‐sample values of both indicators. To achieve the best compromise solution, i.e., to select an optimal NN, the preference ranking organization method for enrichment of evaluations (PROMETHEE) is used. Comparing the optimal FNN and JNN, i.e., FNN(4,5,1) and JNN(4,3,1), it is concluded that under approximately equal conditions, fewer hidden layer neurons are required in JNN than in FNN, confirming that JNN is parsimonious compared to FNN. Moreover, JNN has a better forecasting performance than FNN.     

中国的出口扩张是否影响了健康?——基于Grossman模型的拓展分析

在全球经济复苏乏力的背景下,"逆全球化"浪潮正以不可思议的速度席卷全球,并顺势引导着我们重新审视"全球化"的益处及其隐形成本.鉴于目前并没有相关文献从理论上探讨出口扩张对健康的影响,本文以中国改革开放以来迅猛的出口扩张为背景进行了首次探索.本文构建了一个工人们与其雇主讨价还价的企业出口模型框架.厂商依据利润最大化原理选择最优的资本、劳动和原材料的投入之后,每个工人也会选择"最优的工作努力程度"使得努力的边际收益等于努力的边际成本.然后.依据Grossman健康需求模型.本文系统地探讨了由外生性原因引致的出口扩张影响工人健康的五个路径,包括工作强度,工资率,收入差距,公共服务和环境污染.最后,依据文章结论提出相应的政策建议.     

行驶受扰延迟下配送车辆调度的干扰管理决策模型

针对行驶受扰延迟下配送车辆的调度问题,提出了基于多相量子粒子群算法的两阶段干扰管理决策方法.首先以最小化用户时间窗偏离度和最小化配送成本为目标,建立了问题的数学模型;然后对车辆配送发生干扰事件可能采取的干扰管理模式进行了归纳和分类,并在选定模式基础上提出了用多相量子粒子群算法进行路线选择的方法;最后在Solomon算例的基础上通过实验仿真,对所提出方法的性能进行测试,并与全局重调度方法进行对比分析,验证了本文方法不仅达到了优化目标的目的,还满足了干扰管理的实用性要求.     

Mechanical behavior of a near α titanium alloy under dynamic compression: Characterization and modeling

Dynamic compression tests under strain rates from 870 s^?1 to 2100 s^?1 were conducted for a near α Ti–8Al–1Mo–1V titanium alloy with equiaxed microstructure. Compression behavior, adiabatic shearing and band microstructure were investigated via characterization and calculation. The results demonstrate that all dynamic constitutive curves exhibited obvious stress fluctuation phenomenon with double increase-decrease changing stages at the primary stage of compression. The dislocation multiplication theory can be used to explain this phenomenon. After the stress fluctuation period, work hardening coexisted with the thermal softening, resulting in the slow hardening tendency in constitutive curves. J-C model was utilized to quantify the dynamic constitutive curves. The deviations between the predicted and experimental curves under high strain rates may be attributed to the over-consideration of thermal softening effect in J-C model. Adiabatic shearing band (ASB) began to form under the strain rate of 2100 s^?1. A total shearing strain of 8.1 within ASB achieved in 8.9 μs, corresponding to a local strain rate of about 9.1 × 10⁵ s^?1 and is over 430 times of the macro strain rate. Post annealing was conducted on ASB before EBSD characterization. Due to the static recrystallization during annealing, the α phase within ASB generally presented as ultra-fine grains less than 1 μm in diameter.     

在组织中实践基于模型的系统工程

 基于模型的系统工程（MBSE）要解决复杂系统工程的问题，需要通过信息、计算和软件来架设传统系统与各领域工程（嵌入式、安全、结构等）之间的桥梁。综合产品团队使MBSE的有效方式可以有效降低实践风险，同时MBSE工具链和集成开发环境的成熟度也是制约实践效果的重要影响因素。全面数字化趋势引领的第4次工业革命中，MBSE向数据主线/数字工程等演进的趋势日趋显著。面向未来，必须认识到MBSE和产品数据管理/产品生命周期管理集成，以及在数字工程和数字主线大背景下理解和再造MBSE的必要性。     

民航飞机客舱乘务员应急处置能力分析

为提高民航飞机客舱乘务员应急处置能力,根据专家访谈和相关规章,选取了22项民机客舱乘务员应急处置能力指标。通过编制问卷进行调研,使用SPSS22.0对问卷统计数据进行信度、效度检验及因子分析得到旋转后的各指标的因子载荷,从中提取4个二级指标,并根据各自特点依次命名为基本素质、知识基础、职业技能、处置能力。根据指标体系建立民机客舱乘务员应急处置能力结构方程模型,提出假设模型。使用AMOS24.0对假设模型进行验证和拟合优度检验,最后根据各指标标准化路径指数计算得到各指标的权重。结果表明：对乘务员应急处置能力影响最大的是基本素质,然后依次为处置能力、职业技能、知识基础。